金禾工作坊经济学报告会

ª报告人：张伟进

ª报告题目：Disparity between Urban and Rural Areas in China:A Business Cycle Perspective

ª时间：2014年12月19日 下午4:10-6:00

ª地点：西安交大文管大楼868教室

ª内容摘要：In order to address the issues of periodic fluctuation of disparity between urban and rural areas in China, we extend the standard DSGE model in three aspects: a) a dual economy system consisting of urban and rural sectors, b) urban-rural labor migration and c) the difference in financial participation between urban and rural residents. We estimate our model using data from 1996 to 2012, and the results indicate that the model replicates the observable data. We then apply our model to examine issues pertaining to the fluctuations of the disparity of urban-rural areas in China’s dual-economy.

The main conclusions of our study are as follows. (1) Positive urban productivity shocks raise urban income and consumption, but reduce rural income and consumption; positive rural productivity increases rural income and consumption. (2) Fiscal and monetary policy shocks have an asymmetric impact on urban-rural income and consumption; expansionary policies ease cyclical disparity between urban and rural residents, while tight policies expand the disparity. (3) The fluctuation of urban-rural consumption is mainly caused by the preference shock of the regions. Similarly, the main cause for the fluctuation of urban-rural income is technology shock. (4) The main drives for the expansion of disparity from 2002 to 2004 are negative rural preference shocks and negative rural productivity shocks. (5) The main drives for rural income and consumption rising substantially after 2011 are positive rural productivity shocks and positive rural preference shocks. Consequently, disparity between two sectors is reduced after 2011.

ª报告人简介：张伟进，西安交通大学金禾中心应用经济学博士，主要研究领域为宏观经济学与经济预测。

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