题 目：China as a “Developmental State” Miracle: Industrial Policy, Technological Change, and Productivity
Existing explanations of China’s dramatic economic growth since 1978 have neglected a key piece of the China Puzzle, that is, China since 1978 has been a typical “East Asian Developmental State” (EADS) with a long socialist legacy that regularly deploys industrial and science & technology (S&T) policy to “pick winners” in key industries. Combining a unique dataset on China’s industrial policy and S&T policy with a unique dataset on firm-level performance including productivity, investment and output across various industries, we demonstrate that China’s EADS with a long socialist legacy has indeed been a key driver of China’s post-1978 economic miracle, since 2000 at least. We show that the Chinese state has been successful in “picking winners” by targeting certain industries with industrial and S&T policies, and these industries have enjoyed impressive productivity growth. Yet, whether the state can succeed in “picking winners” critically depends on the nature of an industry. When an industry is an emerging one with a rapid technological change pace, China’s industrial and S&T policies have indeed led to rapid productivity growth and by implication, significant technological catch-up in the industry. In contrast, when an industry is a fairly mature one with only slow pace of technological change, China’s industrial and S&T policies have had little effect on productivity growth. By providing the first systematic econometric study of the EADS model, our study yields important policy implications for middle-to-large size developing countries in crafting their developmental strategies and policies.
毛捷，经济学博士，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授，清华大学中国财政税收研究所、中国人民大学财税研究所兼职研究员，美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校全球政策与战略学院访问学者。主要从事财税、金融等领域的学术研究和政策分析，研究领域包括政府间财政关系、税制改革、税式支出、社会保障、地方债务和金融抑制等。主持国家自然科学基金项目、北京市哲学社会科学规划项目等课题，并在Fiscal Studies、China Economic Review、Economics Bulletin、Energy Policy、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《世界经济》、《经济学》（季刊）、《金融研究》、《中国工业经济》和《财贸经济》等国内外学术期刊上发表论文40余篇。