评论人：韩文卿

时间：2016年6月7日（周二）下午3:00—5:00

地点：西安交大文管大楼874教室

报告题目：Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization （文献）

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199615001555

内容摘要：

Ever since Frankel and Rose's (1998) seminal paper, the literature on trade and business cycle synchronization has relied on gross trade data, with weak results in recent papers that carefully address omitted variable bias. This paper re-examines this relationship using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2013. In a panel framework, we identify a significantly positive impact of bilateral (value- added) trade intensity on business cycle synchronization—controlling for global common shocks, country-pair heterogeneity and other covariates—that is absent when gross trade data are used. There is also some evidence that the impact of value-added trade on synchronization increases with the degree of (value-added) intra- industry trade. We provide a theoretical rationale for the role of value-added trade for synchronization using a simple international business cycle model that features cross-country input linkages in production.

关键词：Business cycle synchronization，value added trade，trade integration

报告人简介：朱佳鸿，西安交通大学金禾中心应用经济学博士生。

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